VJ/CL Leadership Survey #5
June 20, 2002
Lists
By Victoria James

Newspapers and broadcast media are constantly telling us that business is having a rough time right now. Conference exhibit floor buzz says business is challenged right now. But the recent VJ/CL Executive Survey says that the list marketplace is doing ok - maybe not spectacular - but it is more than holding its own.

Fifty-four percent of the respondents have expanded their list purchasing plans and another 27% plan to rent lists at the same rate as last year. Only 19% have contracted their plans to rent less lists. And 77% of the respondents report that response rates are either up or the same. Only 23% reported that response rates were down.

The catalog (22%) and e-commerce (11%) categories are the leading segments that are expanding list rental plans while plans to contract list rental plans are steady across all industries surveyed. (catalog, computer services, consulting, e-commerce, financial services, insurance, non-profit, publishing, retail, telco & utilities, travel & entertainment, education, auto, database, manufacturing and political).

Furthermore, 82% said their list rental forecast for the next two quarters will either remain the same, or increase. Of those 58% forecast an increase. Just 18% forecast a decrease in their list rental plans.

While 57% said the privacy laws have not impacted their business at all, exactly what that means is unclear. It just may be that the business has adjusted to the privacy issue and ethical privacy practices are in place and therefore not impacting day-to-day operations. Or it may be that privacy is something everyone says they care about and few take any action on.

Have list rental strategies markedly changed? There is a movement to change but the list rental business is taking it slowly. Sixty-five percent have shifted less than 25% of their list targets to email. Twenty-two percent of the respondents have shifted 26% or more of their DM efforts toward emailing. In fact, 54% of the respondents say their ROI is better for postal mail than for email. Thirty-nine percent say it is better for email. Seven percent say there is no difference.

Email, however, is definitely a part of the long-term strategy for most mailers. Eighty-one percent of respondents say they are interested in appending email addresses to their files although at this time most (65%) feel that email lists are less stable (deliverable) compared to postal list. A safe prognostication is that when deliverability is assured, more DM efforts will shift to email strategies.

Respondents are sending a message to the USPS i.e. it needs to continue to be concerned about its future. Sixty-eight percent of those surveyed say the new postal increase has had an effect on their snail mail plans. Of those, 55% plan to replace some postal mailings with email. Another 33% say they will use telemarketing and alternative media instead of postal mail. Others (14%) said they'll use broadcast faxing, trade advertising and joint venture/endorsed mailings instead of postal mail.

Surprisingly, 83% % of the respondents say they have never had a list obtained under false pretenses. Although 61% say they have never had to cut off a mailer from using their file due to suspicion of list piracy or fraud, 39% said that they had to do so. And list people may just be a trusting lot. More respondents said they believe that list piracy is not prevalent in the industry.

The VJ/CL Leadership Survey is designed to gather the collective wisdom of the direct marketing leadership in addressing business challenges in today's unprecedented environment.

Nearly 69% percent of the participants are Senior Management - President, CEO/General Manager/ SVP and VP's, and 28% are Directors and Managers. The respondents come from all over the nation representing the myriad of companies that constitute the direct marketing community. Nearly 63% are responsible for marketing for their organization.

If you want to opt-in and be part of one of the upcoming VJ/CL leadership panels, send an email to vjames@victoriajames.com with OPT IN SURVEY in the subject line. All answers are tabulated in the aggregate and analyzed to produce an industry analysis on relevant topics.

Detailed version of the survey results are at www.victoriajames.com/SurveySays/survey5results.html.

Thanks for your participation!